Midwest Economy: January State-by-state Glance

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for January:

Arkansas: The January overall index rose to 52.5 from December’s 51.7. Components of the Arkansas index were new orders at 62.6, production or sales at 48.8, delivery lead time at 59.7, inventories at 46.6 and employment at 48.8. “Durable-goods manufacturers in the state are growing at a solid pace, while nondurable-goods producers are experiencing pullbacks in economic activity,” Goss said. The Arkansas economy will continue to expand in the next three to six months, he said.

Iowa: Iowa’s overall index in January declined for the sixth time in the past seven months, down 52.2 from December’s 53.4. Components of the index were new orders at 53.3, production or sales at 45.1, delivery lead time at 62.8, employment at 54.0 and inventories at 46.1. “Durable-goods producers, including agriculture machinery manufacturers and metal manufacturing, suffered pullbacks in jobs and economic activity for the month,” Goss said. “On the other hand, value-added services firms, including engineering and business services companies, more than offset manufacturing losses. However, the strong U.S. dollar is likely to continue to slow overall growth by making Iowa goods less competitively priced abroad,” he said.

Kansas: The state’s overall index plummeted to 53.8 in January from December’s healthier 62.6. Components of the index were new orders at 38.5, production or sales at 62.4, delivery lead time at 62.4, employment at 52.4 and inventories at 53.4. Expansions for nondurable-goods manufacturers more than offset weaker conditions among durable-goods producers, Goss said. Economic growth will be slower for the next three to six months for the state, he said.

Minnesota: January was the 26th straight month that Minnesota’s overall index was above growth neutral. The overall index dipped 60.1, compared with 61.4 in December. Components of the index were new orders at 66.2, production or sales at 70.4, delivery lead time at 53.3, inventories at 58.1 and employment at 52.7. “Durable-goods manufacturers in the state experienced healthy growth for the month, while nondurable-goods producers lost economic activity for January'” Goss said. Overall, the Minnesota economy is expanding at the fastest pace in the region, he said, and the growth will continue for the next three to six months.

Missouri: The January overall index rose to 56.1 from 55.7 in December. Components of the index were new orders at 59.6, production or sales at 62.9, delivery lead time at 55.5, inventories at 51.9 and employment at 50.8. “Durable-goods manufacturers, including transportation equipment producers and metal manufacturers, will continue to push state growth into a healthy range,” Goss said Goss.

Nebraska: For the 13th straight month, Nebraska’s overall index remained above growth neutral. The January overall index rose to a tepid 53.7 from 52.7 in December. Components of the index were new orders at 55.3, production or sales at 52.9, delivery lead time at 49.4, inventories at 54.9 and employment at 55.8. “Strength among nondurable-goods manufacturers, including food processors, more than offset weaker conditions among durable-goods manufacturers for the month,” Goss said, Overall, Nebraska’s economic growth will be slow for the next three to six months, he said.

North Dakota: The overall index inched up in January, to 53.0 from 52.7 in December. Components of the overall index were new orders at 52.8, production or sales at 52.9, delivery lead time at 54.1, employment at 53.6 and inventories at 51.6. “Despite cuts in oil prices, the state’s energy sector continues to expand,” Goss said. “I expect growth to slow significantly in the months ahead for North Dakota as lower energy investment and employment begin to dampen state growth,” he said.

Oklahoma: The state’s overall index dipped slightly for January, signaling slower growth in the next three to six months. It dropped to 52.0 from 54.0 in December. Components were new orders at 66.6, production or sales at 52.3, delivery lead time at 35.8, inventories at 49.2 and employment at 56.3. Manufacturers experienced solid gains for the month. “Even plunging oil prices have yet to have a significant negative impact on Oklahoma’s energy sector,” said Goss.

South Dakota: After moving below growth neutral in November 2012, South Dakota’s overall index has been above growth neutral since. The state’s January index soared to a regional high of 61.2 from December’s 52.4. Components were new orders at 56.9, production or sales at 74.0, delivery lead time at 69.7, inventories at 54.9 and employment at 50.7. Manufacturers are experiencing slow growth, he said, but “plunging oil prices have yet to have a significant and negative impact on South Dakota’s energy sector.”

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