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Midwest Economy: July State-by-state Glance

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for July:

Arkansas: The overall index for Arkansas climbed to 52.4 from June’s 50.4. Components of the index were new orders at 50.0, production or sales at 49.1, delivery lead time at 54.3, inventories at 57.0 and employment at 51.7. Arkansas producers of durable and nondurable goods report soft but positive growth in business activity for the month, Goss said.

Iowa: Iowa’s overall index dropped to 51.8 last month from 52.5 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 49.
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5, production or sales at 48.5, delivery lead time at 53.7, employment at 51.1 and inventories at 56.4. Growth among nondurable-goods manufacturers in Iowa, including food processors, more than offset weaker conditions among durable-goods manufacturers, Goss said.

Kansas: The state’s overall index slipped to growth neutral 50.0 in July from June’s 50.1. Components of the index were new orders at 47.7, production or sales at 46.8, delivery lead time at 51.8, employment at 49.4 and inventories at 54.4. “Growth for both durable- and nondurable-goods manufacturers in the state continue to move lower,” Goss said. “I expect overall economic activity in the state to move sideways in the months ahead.”

Minnesota: Minnesota’s overall index inched up to 54.8 last month from 54.3 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 52.8, production or sales at 50.8, delivery lead time at 56.2, inventories at 59.0 and employment at 54.5. “Minnesota durable- and nondurable-goods manufacturers are expanding jobs and economic activity,” Goss said. “For example, food processors and businesses tied to vehicle manufacturing are experiencing very strong growth,” he said.

Missouri: The state’s overall index dropped to 49.4 last month from June’s 50.1. Components of the index were new orders at 44.8, production or sales at 46.3, delivery lead time at 51.1, inventories at 53.7 and employment at 51.2. “As in June, durable-goods manufacturers, including vehicle producers and machinery manufacturers, reported very strong growth for the month. However, this growth was offset by weaker business conditions among nondurable-goods manufacturers,” Goss said.

Nebraska: After remaining above growth neutral for 19 straight months, Nebraska’s overall index dropped slumped to 48.6 in July, compared with 51.3 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 46.4, production or sales at 45.6, delivery lead time at 50.4, inventories at 52.9 and employment at 48.0. “Durable-goods manufacturing, especially those (firms) tied to agriculture, cut jobs and experienced pullbacks in economic activity for the month. Nondurable-goods producers are also reporting weaker economic activity,” said Goss.

North Dakota: North Dakota’s overall index remained below growth neutral 50.0 in July, dipping to a regional low of 43.9 from 44.0 in June. Components of the overall index were new orders at 41.9, production or sales at 41.1, delivery lead time at 45.5, employment at 43.4 and inventories at 47.8. “Based on our survey results over the past several months, North Dakota’s economy will continue to lose jobs and economic activity,” Goss said.

Oklahoma: The state’s overall index rose to 48.3 last month from 46.9 in June. Components of the index were new orders at 46.1, production or sales at 45.3, delivery lead time at 50.0, inventories at 52.6 and employment at 47.7. “Both durable- and nondurable-goods manufacturers are shedding jobs. Based on our survey results over the past several months, these losses will extend into the fourth quarter of this year,” Goss said.

South Dakota: The state’s overall index declined to a regional high of 55.8 from June’s 56.2. Components of the overall index for July were new orders at 53.2, production or sales at 52.2, delivery lead time at 57.7, inventories at 60.7 and employment at 55.0. “As in previous months, both durable- and nondurable-goods producers and service providers are expanding at a solid pace. Financial services firms are also expanding in the state,” Goss said. “Our surveys indicate that healthy growth in South Dakota will continue through the fourth quarter of this year.”

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Online:

Creighton Economic Forecasting Group: http: //www.outlook-economic.com