BLOG: Republican reality check

The first debate is complete and Republicans could not have hoped for a better outcome. Governor Romney is considered across-the-board by political pundits to have won the debate, despite the fact that he left himself open to a number of fronts regarding inaccuracy of many of his statements. This was a much needed break for a campaign that had been spiraling out of control over the last several weeks. The Republican candidate has managed to stop the free fall his party was in and many Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief.

This sigh of relief is a little presumptuous in my opinion, and if the Republicans keep moving forward, that sigh may soon turn into a groan of horror. The Republican party is still in deep trouble this election at all levels of government, and while one could immediately say the Democrats are facing the same level of risk, this simply is not true.

Let me say one thing quickly before I go into this critique of the party; I do not consider myself a Democrat or a Republican at heart. I hold views held by both parties and my voting philosophy is a very simple one. I will vote for whichever candidate I believe will screw me over less in the end. However, the problems plaguing the Republicans must be dealt with soon or they risk losing not only the presidency and the Senate, but their overwhelming control of the House. I write this blog as a tactical critique, nothing more.

The debate went in favor of the Republicans and make no mistake, it is a reason to be hopeful. The effects of the debate, however, will be at best a short-term anesthesia to the difficulties facing the Republican party. Many of Romney and Paul Ryan’s plans in regards to healthcare and fixing the economy are vague at best, and in the coming weeks, they will need to explicitly emphasize how their plans are going to help fix the problems facing the U.S. The longer they fail to explicitly lay out their plans in front of the camera, the more opportunities the Democrats will have to attack. When you are at a job interview you don’t act defensive around your would be employer, you make the best case you can as to why they should hire you. Candidates are no different in this aspect.

The party also needs to do some serious cleaning in regards to the mud that has been slung at them after Romney’s 47 percent video and keep the less intelligent Senators Todd Akin and Scott Brown mouths shut. The comments that these men have made are destructive to not only their campaigns, but also to their fellow Republicans. The polls have reflected that many Republicans were talking about a potential sweep of all three elected factions, including the Senate, which has been tentatively in Democratic control. Akin in fact was expected to defeat his opponent in a landslide, but after the “legitimate rape” comment he made on TV, he is now behind his opponent Claire McCaskill in the polls. It’s not only his race that is in trouble. While the Senate race is not over and there could be a change in the coming weeks, it’s been predicted that the Democrats have a good chance to keep the Senate.

This risk is also present in the House, although not to the same degree as in the Senate. It is unlikely that Republicans will lose the House, what they are at risk for is losing a lot of the seats and losing the advantage they held in regards to the House and the passage of bills. In the 2010 election when the Republicans retook the House they held a 49-seat advantage over the Democrats. Coming into the 2012 election, the number of seats considered toss ups by Politico.com, which averages all large national polls together to get its numbers, is 26. Should the Democrats be able to take two thirds of these seats, they would not force Republicans out of office. What it would do however is decrease the number of seats held by the GOP and thus weaken their ability to pass or vote down bills. This is why the comments made by politicians are so important, because things like the Romney video can wreak havoc on a party, especially this late in the game when there is not a lot of time for damage control. And the implications for what this could mean in the 2014 election is also something to consider.

This brings us to the presidential race, and the difficulties the GOP faces in this arena. According to Politico.com, as well as the major media centers including Fox News and MSNBC, Obama is still ranked ahead of Romney in the national poll by at least 3 percent. The president is also currently holding similar leads in every swing state except North Carolina, where he is behind Romney by less than 1 percent. When looking at the states likely or leaning towards one candidate or another, Politico.com estimates it will be 237 votes to 191 in the Democrats favor. For Romney to win the election, he must win 79 of the 110 votes currently held in the swing states, while Obama would only need Florida and New Hampshire to win the election. The Romney campaign should be driving hard to ensure that every potential voter is registered and ready to vote for them in the coming weeks leading to the election.

Except again, the Republicans have hamstrung themselves in this endeavor to win the race. For the states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada the party had one company; Virginia based Strategic Allied Consulting, handling their voter registration drives in these states. However, following the severe allegations of voter registration fraud first reported in Florida, the GOP was forced to fire the company on Tuesday and end their voter registration drive in these key swing states. Some of these states like Florida didn’t close their polls until Oct. 9, leaving Democrats to register supporters for a week with zero competition from the GOP. The impacts from this could be potentially devastating in districts that are being contested by both parties. And unlike the other claims or problems currently in the Republican Party, this is one that can’t be fixed or scrubbed clean in time.

As I said before, Republicans should feel proud of the performance given at the first debate, but now is not the time for them to rest. If the Republicans want to be the winners of this upcoming election then they have a lot of work today. The time for them to make up for their political snafus is quickly winding down and their still in a major setback. Can the Republicans come back to win the Presidency and maybe even keep their vice grip on Congress? Perhaps, but if things continue the way they have for them, then I wouldn’t put money on it.